Vindicating Speculators
This piece explores the complex nature of speculators in the stock market, arguing that while they are often blamed for manias and crashes, they play a vital role in providing liquidity and efficiency to the market.
It delves into the dynamics of speculative frenzies, the societal factors that fuel them, and how human instincts…
Duopoly
The Indian Automotive Glass Market is a Duopoly. High Entry Barriers, Strong Pricing Power and High Profit Margins are Key Advantages. Saint-Gobain Sekurit India Saint-Gobain Sekurit India is a dull stock, whose only notable activity over the past 25 years was its rise from ₹60 to ₹140 per share over the four years between November…
Embracing Randomness
Financial markets are more random than generally assumed. Consistency and recurring patterns in past performance may lead us to overlook this fact. Investing is a prediction business. We buy a stock when our analysis predicts its market price will rise. We sell a stock when we predict its market price will decline. Every time we…
Depreciating Rupee and Rising Yields Presage Pain Ahead
The Indian rupee has been hitting new lows against the US dollar every other day, drawing public attention and concern in recent weeks. The attention seems unwarranted as there is nothing novel about the rupee’s depreciation against the dollar. The Indian Rupee has been losing value against the US dollar for a long time; since…
Amara Raja Batteries: From Nine-Bagger to a Decade of Stagnation
In the world of stock investing, the journey of Amara Raja Batteries serves as a fascinating case study of market dynamics and investor behaviour.
Once celebrated for its remarkable growth, the company experienced a stunning rise from ₹100 to ₹900 per share between 2011 and 2015, showcasing its strong fundamentals and solid performance.
…
Getting Your Hands Dirty
IFGL Refractories exhibits poor operating profitability, with falling profits and a precarious working capital position.
Yet, three factors—stable gross profit margins, increased capital expenditures, and positive cash flow momentum—suggest potential for improved future performance.
Somany Ceramics: Financial Trauma
What happens when the price becomes more about expectations and less about fundamentals The floor tiles are often the least noticeable aspect inside a building. In the room where I sit and write this, the floor tiles are square and ivory-coloured, with white paint strokes that look like clouds on a sunny day. You are…
Emmbi Industries: Still in Waiting
Emmbi Industries’ stock, which had been trading around ₹100, recently spiked to ₹164.50 before plunging 47%.
Despite an attractive valuation and growth momentum, significant risks persist, including poor profitability and high debt costs.
Continuous monitoring of the stock is crucial, as its future prospects may improve despite current weaknesses.
Rolling With It
The post details the author’s investment decisions regarding Vishnu Chemicals, Kovai Medical Centre, and TCPL.
It outlines the case for acquiring more shares of Vishnu Chemicals, citing its improved capital structure and favourable core fundamentals despite current stagnant earnings and profitability.
Conversely, the author suggests holding off on Kovai Medical Centre due to…
Poor Judgements
In the complex world of investing, the stakes are high, and the consequences of poor judgment can be devastating. Despite our best intentions, many of us fall victim to the “illusion of knowing,” a cognitive bias that leads us to overestimate our competence and to misjudge our ability to make sound investment decisions. This phenomenon…
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