The Inevitable Moderation

Stock returns are expected to trail earnings growth over the next decade. The economic environment during the forty years from the early 1980s until 2022 was characterised by low inflation and declining interest rates. From the high teens in 1980, interest rates in developed countries declined for nearly 28 years. They reached near zero in … Continue reading The Inevitable Moderation

Turning Wood into Money

The wood-panel sector has seen strong stock performances but currently faces elevated valuations limiting returns. Century Plyboard and Stylam Industries led with high returns, while Rushil Décor’s low valuation appears misjudged. Greenlam Industries exhibit mediocre fundamentals despite some strengths. Overall, caution is advised due to high current stock prices.

A Prescient Warning

Over the past 25 years, fluctuations in interest rates have foreshadowed major economic crises, with recent patterns showing a similar trajectory since 2022. Historical parallels suggest that the September 2024 rate cut may initiate another crisis, indicating an inevitable decline in stock prices and economic downturn despite market optimism and positive sentiments.

L G Balakrishnan & Bros: There is Still Value in the Stock

We decided to buy the stock of L G Balakrishnan & Bros (LGBB) when we first discussed the stock in April 2023. Its market price then - ₹745 per share - was at a significant discount to our estimated fair value of ₹1,257 per share. When we reviewed the stock again almost one year later, … Continue reading L G Balakrishnan & Bros: There is Still Value in the Stock