Refining My Investment Philosophy: A Journey

The renowned investor Howard Marks, widely revered for his investment memos, was once asked about the reason behind his investment success. “An effective investment philosophy” was his answer. The answer made me curious about my investment philosophy. I worried about not having one. If I do have one, what is it? I do believe I … Continue reading Refining My Investment Philosophy: A Journey

TCPL Packaging: Evaluating Investment Prospects

Despite a sombre financial performance in FY24, TCPL’s stock gained 43 per cent during the financial year. The valuation expanded to a PE of 19.55 and a PBV of 3.72. Normally, a stock’s price is expected to underperform during periods of declining operating profitability, unless the stock is undervalued. In other words, it is reasonable (and justified) for a stock to deliver superior returns even during periods of declining profitability if the stock was undervalued in the first place.

The Reckoning

The purpose of the financial system is to support the ‘real’ economy by facilitating transactions, majorly through credit and money supply. But on certain occasions, the financial system would dissociate from its principal purpose and start functioning for its own sake – its expansion and survival. Unfortunately, the financial system gets seized by many ill effects if dissociated from its primary purpose. Precariously high asset prices, credit booms, capital misallocation, and financial fraud are a few of the ill effects.

Distortions and Imbalances: The Insidious Nature of Low Interest Rates

The low rates prevailed from 2008 until 2022 were a result of central bank interventions in response to the financial crisis. However, these interventions deviated from the prudent path, fostering economic distortions and financial imbalances. Modern central bankers' adherence to price stability and inflation targeting, driven by a flawed understanding of history, has contributed to these issues. The repercussions of this flawed monetary policy are soon to be felt as the economy transitions to a more normal monetary condition. This transition is expected to bring about necessary corrections, albeit painful in the short term, and lead to positive long-term consequences.

Implications of Leaving Ultra-low Interest Rates

"Interest rates play a crucial role in shaping economic and financial conditions, influencing spending, saving, and investment behaviour. As we transition from ultra-low interest rate environments, it's crucial to consider the long-term consequences of these changes on asset prices and the overall economic prosperity."

Stock Review: Dynemic Products

The stock market can be a rollercoaster ride, with many ups and downs. Dynemic Products is no exception, with its stock experiencing significant price drops in recent years. In this stock review, we'll explore the investment prospects of Dynemic Products and discuss whether it's worth investing in this company. So, let's dive in and see what opportunities and challenges lie ahead for investors.